Russian Foreign Affairs – October, 2016

Russia's only aircraft carrier - The Admiral Kuznetsov

Russian Foreign Affairs in the News
October 2016

Russian foreign policy and foreign policies concerning Russia have been of particular interest to those following world affairs lately. With Russia’s more assertive stance on the world stage, Russia’s absorption of Crimea, and resulting sanctions, arms buildups, and global geopolitical restructuring and repositioning, keeping a close eye on this part of the world is especially important to understanding global security and international politics.

This resource serves to track and analyze these issues as they develop in Eurasia.

 

SSI-banner Russian/Turkish Relations, NATO, Syria, and the US

After a meeting of Turkey’s and Russia’s foreign ministers, a possibility of a Russian/Turkish alliance in Syria has opened. Although Russian/Turkish relations hit a low point after Turkey’s 2015 downing of a Russian jet, relations are now rapidly warming. Analysts point, in part, to the Turkish economy, including the need to lift sanctions imposed by Russia on Turkey after the incident – which were made worse on Turkey’s lucrative tourism sector after a recent ISIS attack at Ataturk International Airport in Istanbul. Perhaps of more importance may be Turkey’s fears of an emboldened Kurdish independence movement inside the country. Kurdish forces have a positive relations with the US, which may be helping to drive Turkey’s search for new allies.

NATO may have cause to be concerned regarding potential Russian/Turkish cooperation as Turkey has offered Russia use of the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey. In a televised statement, Cavusoglu said, “[W]e opened Incirlik Air Base for those who want to join the active fight against Daesh [ISIS]…Why not cooperate with Russia as well on these terms?” However a spokesman for the Russian embassy in Washington DC has claimed that Russian use of the base is not strategically useful. Russia has, however, also stated that Turkey may be considering purchasing Russian missiles, which would be a first for a NATO member state.

Nonetheless, disagreements between Russia and Turkey remain regarding the continuation of Assad’s rule in Syria may prevent the new relationship between the two countries from developing to maturity.

Russian Fears Regarding the Syrian Conflict

The Levada Center conducted a poll recently regarding Russian attitudes towards the on-going Syrian conflict. Accumulating responses from 1600 individuals across 48 regions, the center discovered both strong support for Russia’s air campaign in the region (52 percent), and increasing anxiety (48 percent) that the “breakdown in relations between Russia and the West” might lead to a major conflict.

religion-banner Russian Warships en Route to Syria, Tensions Rise with NATO

Russian warships en route to Syria and scheduled to refuel in a Spanish port were rerouted to a North African port recently. Concerns were raised by both the Spanish government and its NATO allies that the warships—and especially the presence of Russia’s sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov—would be utilized to increase the strategic bombing of Aleppo. 250000 civilians remain trapped within the city due to the fighting between Russia-backed Syrian forces and US-backed rebel groups.

Although the Russian/Syrian shelling of eastern Aleppo has been temporarily halted for humanitarian reasons, recent rebel-led ground attacks into government-held western Aleppo has raised the ire of the Russian government. Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, has blamed the attack on the West for its inability to manage its allies in the region and has called for a united front against terrorism—implicitly calling for all foreign governments in the region to fall behind the Russian strategy supporting the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Central-Asia-StudiesProtests Outside Russian Embassy in London

On November 3, 2016, eight hundred mannequin limbs appeared outside of the Russian embassy in London. In addition to blocking the entrance, two protestors additionally chained themselves to the embassy gates. According to the protestors, the demonstration was a response to civilian deaths in Aleppo, Syria. The eight hundred mannequin limbs are approximately equal to the number of civilian deaths that have occurred since the last ceasefire, in September 2016.

UK police did not immediately shut down the protest when it occurred, a response that left the Russian embassy unsatisfied. An embassy statement  expressed deep concern about diplomat security and the that the UK government was unwilling to ensure unhindered operation by averting protests. The embassy also accused the UK government of an anti-Russian campaign in the media. This accusation cited Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s recent statement encouraging people to protest outside the Russian embassy. The embassy telephone line was also blocked by an overwhelming number of callers.

Death of Former Putin Advisor in Washington, DC Hotel

Mikhail Lesin, a former presidential aide to Vladimir Putin, was found dead in his hotel room in Washington DC on November 5, 2015. He had blunt-force injuries to his head, neck, torso and extremities. His death occurred when he was in the process of making a deal with US officials investigating property holdings in California, so foul play was initially suspected.

Lesin was a presidential aide to Putin from 2004-2009. His work included advising on the creation of Russia Today, a news channel which shares Russian news in English. While working for the Russian government, Lesin accrued millions of dollars. His assets, spread across Europe and the US, included approximately $28 million in real estate holdings in Los Angeles.

As soon as Lesin’s death was reported by hotel employees, an investigation began by the Washington DC Metropolitan Police Department and the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, with assistance from the FBI. This collective effort was criticized by Russian officials for poor communication, stating that they only learned the details of Lesin’s injuries when the medical examiner’s report was released to the public.

The investigation of Lesin’s death has now closed. Despite the initial suspicions of foul play and related conspiracy theories, his death has been deemed an accident. “Acute ethanol intoxication” was listed as a contributory cause, which caused Lesin to experience multiple falls that led to his various blunt-force injuries. The immediate cause of his death was a heart attack.

Policy and Conflict Post SovietAir Defense Deal with India

On Saturday, October 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a deal for India to purchase an advanced air defense system from Russia. The deal was made during talks held alongside the Brics summit, though the deal was not part of the summit. The Brics summit is an annual conference including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This year’s event, the eighth, was hosted in Goa, India.

The 5.8 billion USD deal agreed on a delivery of five regiments of Russian S-400 “Triumph” air defense systems. The S-400 is Russia’s newest and most advanced air defense system. Currently, the system is only available to China (which ordered six regiments in 2014), India, and Russia. Additionally, Russia has deployed S-400 surface-to-air missiles in Syria, where Russian forces have been supporting Syrian government forces. Delivery of the systems to India and China is expected to begin in 2020.

Russia Denies Involvement in Windows Hack

Fancy Bear is a cyber espionage group which has carried out attacks against government, military and security targets. Due to the group’s schedule, its targets and the types of attacks that it employs, the Russian government has been accused of sponsoring the group. However, the Kremlin has denied involvement.

Estonian Defense League

Fearing the possibility of a Russian incursion into the Baltic States mimicking previous Russian action in Ukraine, the Estonian government has begun training a post-invasion insurgency force known as the Estonian Defense League. The League has encouraged Estonians to purchase firearms and supplies in preparation for a potential invasion.

Other Articles

Inside Russia’s Cyberscene
What do we know about hacking in general and Russian hacking in particular?

Russia Slashes Military Spending as Revenues Shrink
Russian authorities have decided to cut defense spending by $15.89 billion or by approximately 30 percent.

Ukraine Rebuilds Navy with U.S. Help
Ukraine is refitting and expanding its naval fleet, including repairing its flagship, to counter a Russian military build-up in the annexed territory of Crimea, the commander of the Ukrainian navy says.

U.S., Britain Weigh New Sanctions on Russia
Though Russia’s economy has suffered in recent years, due in part to Western sanctions over Russian activities in Ukraine, the Kremlin – and the Russian public – have shown little sign of yielding.

America’s Russia Policy Has Failed
Here are seven things the next U.S. president should do to put Washington back in the driver’s seat.

Universities Prepare for Cold War 2.0
“When the next crisis arises,” Stent asks, “who will be well enough trained to deal with it?”

The State of U.S.-Russia Relations
In this 1-hour discussion, three experts debate Russia’s place in the world, Vladimir Putin’s agenda, US reactions to Russia, and more.

Russia to Join China to Counter U.S. Missile Defense
China described the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system as an “out-and-out strategic” move that threatens its national security, warning about taking “necessary measures to safeguard” its interests.

Note: Helen Herring, a finalist for SRAS’s Home and Abraod Scholarship contributed to this issue.

About the Author

Michael Filitis
Michael Filitis is a recent MA graduate from the University of Chicago where he concentrated on early Soviet nationalities policy, propaganda, and the rise of nationalism in Eastern Europe. A recipient of SRAS's Home and Abroad Scholarship his current focus is the improvement of his Russian language skills with the goal of pursuing a Phd in Russian history and political science. Outside of academia, he enjoys playing and composing music, eating to excess, movies about space, and contemplating a more active lifestyle.
Josh Wilson
Josh Wilson holds an MA in Theater and a BA in History from Idaho State University. He has lived in Moscow, Russia since 2003. Josh is the Assistant Director for The School of Russian and Asian Studies. He assists in program development and leads the Home and Abroad Programs. He is also the editor of the SRAS newsletter, director of SRAS's Online Projects Initiative and the editor-in-chief for Vestnik: The Journal of Russian and Asian Studies.
SRAS Students
SRAS students come from around the world to study, intern, or research in Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, or Russia. They often write while abroad - to complete class or scholarship requirements, or sometimes just because they are inspired to do so. This account will be used to publish exceptional examples of this student writing. Note that when SRAS students is indicated as the author, more specific author info will be made available at the end of the entry or article.